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Afternoon Market Updates
(Washington Post) - The share of renters who spend more than half their income on housing is at its highest level in half a century and it’s no longer just low-income tenants who are feeling the pain, according to a Harvard University study scheduled for release Tuesday. About 26 percent of renters — or 10.1 million people — spent more than half their pre-tax household income on rent and utilities in 2009. That’s because incomes slipped dramatically from their peak at the start of the decade even as rents kept rising. The study offers the latest in a series of grim statistics about the scarcity of rental housing, especially for the working poor. The supply has not kept up with demand in part because of a shortage of apartments, a key source of new rentals. Developers cut back on such projects when the economy deteriorated in 2009, which drove down vacancies and boosted rents. Analysts say they expect rents to keep climbing as developers try to ramp up new projects and catch up with demand. In many areas, the demand is driven by families who lost their homes to foreclosure during the housing bust and ended up searching for rentals. Meanwhile, as the job market recovers, more newly employed young adults appear to be seeking their own apartments instead of living with their parents, putting even more upward pressure on rental rates, according to one of the study’s researchers. Ideally, renters should not spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing, the study said MND wrote a story on this topic last January. READ MORE: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/voiceofhousing/129657.aspx
Earlier we noted: "If benchmark TSYs get no lower than the 3.31's today, and no higher than 3.34 support, it's likely that MBS will keep this 102-12 to 102-16 range. " Interestingly enough, it was only moments after 10yr notes ticked down to 3.309 that FNCL 4.5's broke higher, hitting 102-17. Due to MBS making the expected move in relation to benchmark guidance givers, there's really not much of an implication here other than the fact that TSYs are rallying on massive short-covering/forced buying, and MBS are lagging. Reprices for the better continue to be a possibility, especially among lenders who have not yet released any. However, we're running into the last vestiges of MBS prices that can coincide with 4.875% Best-Ex rates and thus the production MBS community should prove to be increasingly hesitant to play ball with trading activities that put prices high enough motivate a shift in production to the 4.0 coupon. It's not that this CAN'T happen, it's just that IF IT DOES, sustaining the move will be an ongoing process requiring lots of confirmation.
(HUD) - Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development announced that more than a thousand extremely low-income persons living with HIV/AIDS will continue to receive permanent housing as a result of $23 million in grants. During each of the next three years, this HUD funding will help provide permanent supportive housing for 1,015 households so they can manage their illnesses while receiving critically needed support services.
The funding announced today is offered through HUD’s Housing Opportunities for Persons with AIDS Program (HOPWA) and will renew HUD’s support of 22 local programs in 18 states (see attached chart and individual project descriptions below).
“These grants are a vital source of support to the local programs that are on the ground working to keep families healthy,” said HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan. “Knowing that you have a place to call home can make all the difference to the well-being of families living with HIV/AIDS, many of whom have been on the brink of homelessness.”
Although prices of FNCL 4.5's got as high as the 102-20's during the flight-to-safety rally surrounding the crisis in Japan, the most frequently recurring technical level was 102-16. The rally, at that time, ultimately consolidated its trading pattern around 102-14. This might not be that different from what we're about to see this afternoon as the 102-16 level has already provided several noticeable bounces. On the lower side, 102-12 has been supportive today. If benchmark TSYs get no lower than the 3.31's today, and no higher than 3.34 support, it's likely that MBS will keep this 102-12 to 102-16 range. 10yr notes are currently at 3.324, nearly 4 bps lower on the day. Reprices for the better have been reported, but not with unanimity yet. That should come with additional time spent at or near these levels, and the chances would decrease if prices dip below 101-12, or look like they're headed that way.
FNCL 4.5's are rallying into new highs, currently up 7 ticks on the day at 102-16. These are also the highest prices since 3/17, and factoring out the Japan-related FTS, the best levels since mid-January. 10yr yields have also fallen to their lowest levels of the day at 3.32. Current price levels suggest reprices for the better. Only exception would be a rapid retracement back below previous highs around 102-14.
* U.S. SELLS $35 BLN 2-YEAR NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 0.673 PCT, AWARDS 79.79 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH * U.S. 2-YEAR NOTES BID-TO-COVER RATIO 3.06, NON-COMP BIDS $310.70 MLN * US TREASURY - PRIMARY DEALERS TAKE $16.92 BLN OF 2-YEAR NOTES SALE, INDIRECT $13.13 BLN
Featured Market Discussion
Adam Quinones : "quick off topic...World Record Chili-Pepper: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/25/us-australia-chili-idUSTRE73O0I120110425"
Brett Boyke : "WF RP"
Matthew Graham : "shorts getting beat up solidly today"
Adam Quinones : "anyone remember us saying the pre-FOMC "position squaring" parade would be friendly for rates bc of lack of liquidity. Well youre seeing that play out today...short covering led this rates rally. http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/208264.aspx"
Matthew Graham : "thus on this flatter day, a 29 tick gain puts it roughly in line with the yield change across the curve?"
Matthew Graham : "and it take more change in price to affect yields of the higher coupon %?"
Matthew Graham : "because it's the most sensitive?"
Andrew Horowitz : "Hey MG or AQ any reason why the 30 years has been having such large mid day pricing swings"
Adam Quinones : "just finished recap of Case-Shiller. This data gives me a headache but I tried to simplify using charts: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/04262011_case_shiller.asp"
Matthew Graham : "sure! 4.0 coupons DO, in fact, exist. It's just that the clear, but implicit message sent by rate sheets is to fund loans that end up in a 4.5 coupon"
Chris Kopec : "On the borrower paid side, I'm seeing 4.375%."
Matthew Graham : "I think the afterparty is more hotly anticipated"
Rob Clark : "So the auction will be after the announcement. That will be interesting"
Oliver S. Orlicki : "FAMC reprice"
Matthew Graham : "4.625 would have to go into 4.0 Coupon and who wants that?!?! "
Matthew Graham : "yeah --- all the eggs in one basket in terms of coupon concentration"
Scott Valins : "the gap between 4.625 and 4.75 on FHA 30 is approaching 200bps - never seen this before"
Matthew Graham : "yeah, gotta give it a few minutes to make sure it has some staying power"
Mike Drews : "I haven't seen many reprices yet"
Michael Tadros : "InterBank better at 1:16"
Victor Burek : "any reprices yet?"
Matthew Graham : "would a bounce at 3.31 be meaningful? no... So in a sense, would that be "expected?" I guess you could look at it that way"
Matthew Graham : "i "identify" what I think would be meaningful"
Adam Quinones : "Shorts getting squeezed out in 10s. CC MBS not keeping up....."
Matthew Graham : "ESPECIALLY on a 2yr auction a day before FOMC"
Matthew Graham : "wouldn't expect a groundbreaking BTC at these yields. 3x overall sponsorship is not "C+" material in this case, and market movements since the auction would seem to support that"
Matthew Graham : "not much to say about this one... bad BTC, good vs WI, indirect sponsorship redeems it above a C+ "
Matthew Graham : "a bit higher than expected indirects"
Adam Quinones : " WASHINGTON, April 15 (Reuters) - President Barack Obama said there are no quick fixes to bring down rising gasoline prices and urged caution about being too quick to tap U.S. emergency oil reserves amid uncertainty in the Middle East. "There aren't going to be a lot of great short-term solutions to this problem," Obama said in an ABC interview aired on Friday."
Matthew Graham : "right on the screws"
Adam Quinones : "OBAMA - SUSTAINED HIGH OIL AND GASOLINE PRICES COULD SLOW U.S. ECONOMY GROWTH AT TIME WHEN IT NEEDS TO BE ACCELERATED - RTRS "
Matthew Graham : "WI is 0.674 at the moment"
Matthew Graham : "last 5 BTC's 3.16 -- 3.03 3.47 -- 3.71 -- 3.70"
Victor Burek : "mg...what we looking for on auction?"
Adam Quinones : "WHEN ISSUED 2s at: 0.679% vs. 0.636% OTR"
Adam Quinones : "making this auction a gauge of the market's nervousness re: FOMC hawks"
Adam Quinones : "im not feeling great about this auction..it will certainly give us a view into the market's bias toward the short-end of the curve...which happens to be the portion of the curve most sensitive to hawkish rhetoric from the FOMC. "
Adam Quinones : "how risque of you."
Adam Quinones : "running naked eh?"
MMNJ : "I am floating a LOT of loans right now....whether I am right or wrong remains to be seen...:)"
Chris Kopec : "DU Refi Plus with MI.....a few months ago, you needed to go back to the original servicer for this, but I recall hearing some lenders will now do it regardless or the original servicer. Can someone confirm this."
Adam Quinones : "new dashboard has it Ira."
Ira Selwin : "Would be cool to see the lock/float from people here based on the perceived risk AQ"
Adam Quinones : "Plain and Simple: Although they cut their output forecast, the Fed still expects a noticeable GDP improvement in 2011 from 2010. This uptick in total output is expected to occur without a major recovery in the labor market or an increase in core inflation metrics (no pricing power). This means, if the Fed is right, we will be leaving some folks behind on the road to recovery. That's why I am calling it a "segmented recovery". My point is, the Fed is pretty optimistic about an uptick in activi"
Adam Quinones : "here is latest SEP: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/184780.aspx"
Adam Quinones : "supposedly "
Justin Bayle : "will he be taking questions at the press conference?"
Adam Quinones : "Bernanke will then share the Fed's updated "Summary of Economic Projections:""
Adam Quinones : "12:30 ? The FOMC Statement is released. The announcement is likely to show an unchanged monetary policy, but many questions remain: Is QE2 ending this summer as scheduled? Is the Fed increasingly concerned with inflation risks? How does the Fed view the ongoing recovery? Is commodity-price driven inflation still "transitory"?."
Adam Quinones : "11:30 ? Treasury auctions $35,000,000 5-year notes. Competitive bids are cut-off at 11:30 instead of 1:00 to give investors a chance to prepare for the early release of the FOMC statement and the first ever post-meeting press conference with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. "
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